“Looking forward to 2016”

If the weather and the feel-good factor continue in harmony the shopper will be out and buying, albeit usually with a wish to lose weight and minimise expenditure.

All the grocery pundits talk about health as one of the main trends in food, and I believe that cheese has weaved a way through the fat factors, with some justification we might argue, and I do not see that changing much in the year ahead.

So how will pricing fare in what is the back end of a turbulent year of rampant milk price deflation? Milk is still in over-supply in real terms and we probably cannot see much changing before the third quarter of 2016, with the probable exception of organic milk.

The pressure, therefore, will remain on the mass market products – especially Cheddar – and less so on speciality and organic where there are some who are at capacity, like Lincolnshire Poacher and Colston, and others looking for increased demand. The Cheddar wars will continue for some time yet, although I believe we will see an acceleration to increased sales and offers of vintage, cave aged, 30 month plus etc – indeed almost any definition that adds to the value – so I expect a few more steel containers buried in the ground to give the cave illusion soon.

Those with genuine credentials continue to have a bow wave of growth, and these include Wookey Hole Cheddar, Isle of Man Vintage and Belton’s Red Fox.

I believe there will be some continued musical chairs amongst the big beasts of the retail jungle. Some majors will continue to reduce range and clear lines that sometimes add variety but achieve low hurdle rates, and that will possibly be a combination of the commercial and technical power bases who have their separate agendas. In contrast we shall see the likes of Aldi and Lidl expand their quality agenda across the whole cheese offering and seek further access into premium cheese.

Similarly, some of the majors are committed to reviving their local credentials but they face two challenges –  one being their own technical straight jacket, which frequently has a one-size-fits-all approach, and another being the trust and credibility from some maker sources who have – in some cases – a fear of this fad approach and need the certainty of longer-term commitment, especially where products are made 10-12-15 months ahead.

There is undoubtedly untapped talent in the speciality arena which are well enough known but have not yet hit their stride, and this may be their year. Laverstoke has a reputation in organic Buffalo Mozzarella, but maybe its Buffalo Brie or Buffalo Gouda may make it an all-year-round performer.

Similarly, Northumberland Cheese Co. makes some outstanding and consistent-quality cheese, especially their hard goat cheese and smoked Northumberland cheese. Neat, professional and consistent, there is surely more to be had here.

Maybe organic will push on this year, as it seems to be in good demand and yet not as visible as it once appeared. I suspect a realistic amount of this now finds its way into export markets. One of the most recognisable being Daylesford, which has yet to ripple out from its own highly regarded site to a wider audience.

So much depends on the certainty of milk supply and that should raise some thoughts for the year ahead. Not every specialist cheese maker has their own milk supply, and whilst it’s nice on the one hand to have a low cost input to the product base, if in turn that low price ultimately destroys the production base of farmers there is a seismic crash coming somewhere in supply or distribution or both. It is better that a realistic price is delivered into the milk market, to what is one of the most cost-efficient farming set ups in Europe. That prospect could be nine months away.

The deli v prepack market will continue to be driven in favour of the latter, with few major retailers making headway in market share and a number now struggling to even retain it in any meaningful way. There are many major retailer stores now opening without counters, and the space of some others is being compressed. All of this is good news for farm shops, specialist cheese retailers and market traders as there is still a strong commitment to buying artisan cheese in those channels, and some are reporting steady growth in online sales.

Exports will continue to develop for speciality types, I believe, with prepacks moving faster than deli bulk as most expanding markets have a supermarket dominated distribution. It will accelerate in standard cheese types in prepack, but will surely move inevitably into artisan types which is a major contributor to brand recognition for those names

Food service too will gather greater momentum in specialist cheese, particularly British, as restaurants, pubs and food outlets move cheese up the menu agenda. Already, several major pub food groups have expanded both range and recognition of the cheese types they offer at the end of their meals, fortunately seeking both quality and provenance.

I see no stopping the classic Continental growth, especially French and Italian, as well as more for Epoisses, Reblochon and Brie de Meaux which are all pretty well established – but there is more gas in the tank yet. Goat cheese will trend in particular, and Continental is not alone in that respect as Kidderton, St Helens and Butlers continue to make waves here.

So, in short, milk still in the doldrums, retail deli compression, export surge, discounter premium cheese, organic revival, vintage Cheddar rise, food service demand, and the shopper still very much seeking premium quality food… 2016 could be a good year!