“Horizon scanning”

Offices full of highly paid marketeers and researchers scan the horizon and try to forecast where cheese will be in the next five years, and with so many factors now affecting the new generation of shopper, it seems many of our classic sectors are being challenged by change.

Cheddar has already changed substantially, with sweeter tastes, crunchier types, cave-aged and vintage-style taking the lead, eclipsing the traditional West Country cheesemakers’ predominance in the artisan Cheddar category, especially in the high flow retail outlets. The strong, robust, raw taste of Farmhouse Cheddar has become more localised, or more suited to an older generation. I rarely find well-heeled youths buying into those tastes. Some makers have responded with more modern styles and appear to be holding their position, whilst others believe the tide will turn in their favour. I believe that for some, the next five years will see the current trend moving forward, with packaging and convenience the major drivers for growth.

For years the local favourites of Lancashire, Cheshire, Gloucester and Leicester held their own, especially in their home areas. But lacking national and regional distribution in major retail outlets has seen types like Cheshire lose traction, and makers like Applebys and Bournes plough a lone furrow in holding up traditional Cheshire making. Wensleydale is perhaps the exception, where Wensleydale Dairy has managed to premiumise the product and deliver a Yorkshire PDO on the back of a renowned Kit Calvert brand. Red Leicester, aside from Sparkenhoe, has become an orphan county brand, but Belton’s Red Fox and Clawson’s products have both tried to bring the market value up with some encouraging success. Lancashire stands alone as a hotbed of localism, with a gaggle of long-established makers hanging in there – Dewlay, Singletons, Sandhams, Butlers and Supreme Champion cheesemaker Greenfield sit among others – but in truth, a closer look at what they sell shows that Lancashire too is under pressure to grow outside the county. I believe that the premiumisation of these county cheese is their only protection, with Belton and Wensleydale Dairy showing the way, where brand is bigger than type.

Stilton is called the king of cheese, and even this monarch has pretenders snapping at its heels. Years of seeing its value dumbed down at its Christmas high water mark have almost turned it into Grandad’s cheese, and advanced a commoditised disconnect with its public during the 50 other weeks of the year. Those who have kept the brand value high have probably been the most consistent in both quality and sales, allowing some limited investment in NPD. Businesses like Colston Bassett and Cropwell Bishop have a significantly high export market, which has partially protected them from the main impact of Britain’s market issues. Modernity of this classic is needed in the UK marketplace; usage and relevance to the modern shopper is surely its big five year challenge.

Additives too have fractured into so many channels, with even Dairy Crest now entering a market I suspect they sneered at for so many years. Thanks to a host of makers, gathered round three major taste types and trying to invent the next big flavour and get it away to market, we’ve had curry, piri piri, chocolate, whisky and every conceivable option – yet no one has yet broken the flavour stranglehold of smoked, cranberry and apricot. 

This fragmentation of a thousand types will inhibit total growth, as no one beyond the established major brands can invest to grow the total market, and it’s not clear if the shopper will be fascinated by this kaleidoscope of flavours or ultimately bored with it. I can see this demonstrating high day and holiday market trends, centred on Christmas, with a limited number of classic flavours holding the market for the majority of the year, supported by a few guest flavours.

The natural inclination of most shoppers is to protect the planet and their own environment as best they can, as study after study shows. The dairy trade sometimes has difficulty getting over the message of organic, as grass fed animals seen by the public, look the perfect epitome of organic. What those studies also show is that the commitment comes at an affordable price. As an old cynic, I’ve observed that we save the planet when we can afford it.