“Christmas Trading 2015”

Expert Eye with

John Shepherd

Owner and Managing Director of Partridges

• Is our café a hero or a villain?
• “The battle for optimism and morale in retail”
• “Sustainable confusion”
• “What to do about January?”
• “Is the Christmas boom sustainable?”

'Tis the season to be analysing the Christmas trading figures... So how was it for Partridges in 2015?

We normally consider the Christmas trading period as the first 24 days of December, and I have kept our figures for the last 20 years going back to 1995.

2014 had set the previous record so I always knew it would be difficult to beat those figures, which indeed it was. In the shop we ended up by being 1% down on 2014 on a like-for-like basis, although due to better overseas sales the actual result for the 24 days of December ended up by being 1% up overall. However, the problem with Christmas is that there are a number of aspects to consider and, like so many things when you run your own business, it’s emotional.

The traditional view of Christmas is of partridges in pear trees and reindeer and snow and that customers trade up, which is good news for delis. However, expectations of performance also rise. Christmas is a critical time for food shops. Around 11% of our annual sales happen in December and, as we all know, it is becoming much more competitive, especially with online sales becoming a bigger factor each year.

Another problem with looking at Christmas sales is that individual aspects such as hamper sales, overseas orders, weather and competition from both bricks and clicks can skew the results considerably. Discounting before Christmas, for example, is now a regular feature. However, the suggestion that the Christmas rush comes later and later each year does not seem to apply to us. In 1995 41% of our Christmas sales took place in the last week while in 2015 the figure was 34%.

The individual aspects that affect our figures are as follows: In 1999 there was the millennium spending spree. In 2001- 2003 there was a new multiple in the vicinity. In 2004 we relocated to our new premises. Things went well until 2007 and 2008 when the recession struck. However, in 2009 we bounced – or staggered – back and have had a good run more or less ever since. The only exception being 2013 when one or two large hamper orders went missing.

Christmas trading is still a very good thing, indeed essential. Unfortunately it also brings with it unrealistic expectations of increased sales. It is interesting to note that since 1995 the retail price index has risen by 73% and so all sales increases should be measured against that background. The good years are followed by not so good years, new challenges emerge and to hold on is no mean feat. Although it is not very exciting to say that.

So one can spend hours in an anorak analysing sales figures to possibly no long term benefit or avail. Perhaps the best thing to do is to ride the waves and toast (with a glass of Partridges champagne) the fact that things are going reasonably well.

Except that as I write this it is January and I have given up alcohol for a month. But I am certainly not going to tell the customers that (and especially Francois our wine manager who would never understand why)!