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and doing at the moment. “Each SME should be asking themselves how will [their customers] be shopping differently based on the new context,” Fiona says. It’s time for online to shine An area that all shop owners must re-evaluate in the new retail landscape is online shopping and delivery. Research by Mintel revealed @specialityfood 12 S ummer is in full swing in the UK, but in the minds of fine food producers and retailers, Christmas bells are ringing. By mid-summer, early Christmas planning is typically well underway, but the uncertainty caused by the Coronavirus pandemic has thrown a spanner in the works for many small businesses. With questions around whether the nation will still be in some form of lockdown come winter and what social distancing measures will be in place, the only certainty is that the 2020 festive season is unlikely to resemble any other in recent memory. Hitting the right tone Whether the UK sees another spike in Covid-19 cases in the coming months or infection rates continue to fall, one change in shopping behaviour that will be here to stay is the tightening of purse strings. In April, the UK’s first full month in lockdown, the economy shrank by 20% and the number of people claiming unemployment benefits shot up by 856,500 to a total of 2.1 million. A further nine million UK workers were having their wages paid by the government through the furlough scheme, which is due to end in October –meaning unemployment may rise further towards the end of the year. Research by EY found that almost two-thirds of UK consumers expect a global recession, and over half believe that financial stability is years away. According to researchers at Kantar, shoppers will cope with this in different ways, with some opting for cheaper products and others simply buying less. Still, with consumers shifting their spending away from pubs and restaurants, the grocery segment is expected to benefit. Kantar’s researchers predict the grocery market will grow 13% in 2020 compared with the previous year. Despite this new frugal attitude, researchers believe consumers with financial flexibility will look for little ways to brighten their days amid the gloom of the pandemic, and many will still want a big Christmas blowout. “In the last financial crisis, we saw people treating themselves more at home. An in-home treat is still less expensive than a meal out (M&S Meals for Two benefitted from this). And 30% of UK respondents confessed to ‘treating themselves more’ during lockdown (Kantar COVID-19 Barometer),” says Rosie Hawkins, chief innovation officer at Kantar. Paul Hargreaves, chief executive of Cotswold Fayre, adds that having traded through two deep recessions before, he’s seen sales of speciality food actually rise in inverse proportion to recession. “Clearly this recession will be deeper than both of these, but people still need to eat and will treat themselves with quality food this Christmas to cheer themselves up, especially as extended family gatherings have been scarce this year.” But while hopes for Christmas shoppers are undimmed, consumers’ finances will undoubtedly be squeezed. Businesses must work hard to strike a balance between retaining their reputations for fine food and gifts and ensuring they don’t alienate their customers. Offering a broader range of price points so as not to exclude those with less money to spend is a good option, according to Hayley Waters, marketing manager at Springvale Foods. “Allowing consumers to still buy fine chutneys for cheese but with the option of a lower priced range will show customers your thoughtful consideration and your adaptability to the new normal.” While marketing and adverts will need to bring some festive sparkle, Matt Botham, strategic insight director at Kantar, says that they should also promote value for money. Rosie adds: “Some of the Easter advertising fell short as it showed family gatherings that simply weren’t feasible at the time. And some of the stores weren’t able to offer delivery slots or didn’t have a home delivery service at all, and so access to the store and their offers was difficult.” What’s trending for Christmas 2020? Fine food retailers may be wondering whether the changes in consumer shopping habits will translate into a taste for new and different products. “Traditional Christmas fayre, such as mince pies, Christmas cake, Christmas puddings and the like have been on the wane for the past three years, and I expect that people will continue to want new, innovative and quirky this Christmas too,” says Paul. “I’mnot sure they will want to be reminded that they didn’t have a holiday in 2020!” However Kantar’s Matt says shops are likely to focus on good quality essentials rather than innovative and less-tested products. “But that doesn’t mean there isn’t an opportunity to excite shoppers with new festive lines,” he adds. Hayley, too, believes that a large proportion of shoppers will opt for the classics for their own tables. “Who doesn’t love a classic Christmas pudding covered in lashings of brandy sauce? Or a cheese board piled high with savoury biscuits and a classic red onion chutney?” But when it comes to food and drink gifting, she expects to see everybody there for the day. And that might need a change in the packaging format, a change in price or a change in delivery methods.” This Christmas may also see a shift towards ambient and frozen products, such as frozen turkeys, as shoppers are likely to be heading to the shops less frequently. To prepare for these changes, Fiona suggests taking a step back to really consider what consumers are thinking, feeling CHRISTMAS INTHETIMEOFCOVID Keeping the festive spirit alive during a pandemic will be no mean feat, but SMEs are well placed to succeed demand for unique products. “I wouldn’t recommend that retailers steer away from the classics, but agree that they should be incorporating some continental brands and unique UK products into their ranges that they may have overlooked in previous years.” As well as considering what their customers will be looking for, SMEs should take time to think about how food and drink will be consumed differently this year. Fiona Fitzpatrick, food and beverage growth consultant and host of the podcast Brand Growth Heroes, says: “You might still be buying Christmas pudding, but you may be buying smaller ones because you know you’re not going to have